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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 2

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 11-S.Janikowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.70 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP