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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to LAC 27, Center-59-J.Condo. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 33 for 6 yards (91-S.Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model