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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.55 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model