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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.46 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP