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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 3 at the 48
Cleveland Browns 13 – New England Patriots 33
What Actually Happened
(3:40) (Shotgun) 11-T.Pryor pass incomplete deep middle to 80-R.Louis.
The Three Options
GO
+0.07 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.07 EP
- 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -1.92 EP
KICK
-0.96 EP
- 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 75% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
