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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 60

New England Patriots 33 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(5:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model