Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 30

(5:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NE 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Edelman to NE 25 for no gain (53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model