Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 70

New England Patriots 30 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to CLE 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 32 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on CLE, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model