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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 58

New England Patriots 23 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 20 for 8 yards (51-B.Mingo; 46-J.Develin).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model