4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 23 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 29-L.Blount left guard to CLE 1 for no gain (56-D.Davis; 24-I.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +3.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model