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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(9:20) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model