Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:52) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NE 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-59-T.Carder.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.54 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model