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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green to DAL 49 for 5 yards (24-M.Claiborne, 42-B.Church).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.21 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model