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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CIN 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at CIN 23 for no gain (27-J.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model