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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 20 for 10 yards (53-M.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model