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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(11:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model