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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-L.Whitehead MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 22. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 22 for no gain (21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP