4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP