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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 4-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP