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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 39

Buffalo Bills 23 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to LA 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-26-R.Blanton.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP