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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 16 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to LA 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Austin to LA 14 for -3 yards (33-C.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model