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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model