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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-B.Tate to BUF 11 for -2 yards (13-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP