4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ATL 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-E.Weems to ATL 37 for 7 yards (33-S.Keo, 50-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model