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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 52

Denver Broncos 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to ATL 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-E.Weems. PENALTY on DEN-50-Z.Anderson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ATL 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model