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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 69

Denver Broncos 6 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 23-D.Booker up the middle to DEN 32 for 1 yard (41-P.Wheeler).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model