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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 3 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 12-P.Lynch up the middle to DEN 37 for 3 yards (44-V.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model