Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 55

Denver Broncos 3 – Atlanta Falcons 13

(13:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model