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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to DEN 34 for 2 yards (51-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.33 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model