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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 56

Denver Broncos 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.81 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP