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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 31

Denver Broncos 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 32-A.Janovich up the middle to ATL 29 for 2 yards (36-K.Ishmael; 22-K.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.39 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.97 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model