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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 6-B.Kern punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. (The Punt Hangtime Was 4.19 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP