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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 20 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.60 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model