Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 71

Houston Texans 27 – Tennessee Titans 20

(12:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to TEN 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 33 for 9 yards (46-J.Weeks, 35-E.Pleasant).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.18 EP
53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model