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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 20 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to HOU 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 23 for 1 yard (47-A.Blake).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.60 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP