Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:58) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 46 for 16 yards (52-A.Wallace). PENALTY on TEN-47-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model