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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 55

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 28-P.Perkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -1.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model