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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 36

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model