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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 92

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to NYG 39, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-35-M.Sherels at NYG 41. 35-M.Sherels to NYG 41 for no gain (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 92, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP