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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to MIN 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model