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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model