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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.54 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model