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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to NYG 34, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP