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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 38 for 18 yards (6-T.Morstead).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model