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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model