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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-30-E.Harris. PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.32 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model