Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 21 for 10 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on NO-21-D.Harris, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.72 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model