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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 2-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model