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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP