Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(6:52) 4-M.Darr punts 66 yards to CIN 10, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.98 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model